A New Ice Age for Europe?

daniel · 01-27-2004, 06:42 AM

From today's Independent:

Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades'

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor

25 January 2004

Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming, new research suggests.

A study, which is being taken seriously by top government scientists, has uncovered a change "of remarkable amplitude" in the circulation of the waters of the North Atlantic.

Similar events in pre-history are known to have caused sudden "flips" of the climate, bringing ice ages to northern Europe within a few decades. The development - described as "the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments", by the US Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, which led the research - threatens to turn off the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe's weather mild.

If that happens, Britain and northern Europe are expected to switch abruptly to the climate of Labrador - which is on the same latitude - bringing a nightmare scenario where farmland turns to tundra and winter temperatures drop below -20C. The much-heralded cold snap predicted for the coming week would seem balmy by comparison.

A report by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden - launched by Nobel prize-winner Professor Paul Crutzen and other top scientists - warned last week that pollution threatened to "trigger changes with catastrophic consequences" like these.

Scientists have long expected that global warming could, paradoxically, cause a devastating cooling in Europe by disrupting the Gulf Stream, which brings as much heat to Britain in winter as the sun does: the US National Academy of Sciences has even described such abrupt, dramatic changes as "likely". But until now it has been thought that this would be at least a century away.

The new research, by scientists at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Acquaculture Science at Lowestoft and Canada's Bedford Institute of Oceanography, as well as Woods Hole, indicates that this may already be beginning to happen.

Dr Ruth Curry, the study's lead scientist, says: "This has the potential to change the circulation of the ocean significantly in our lifetime. Northern Europe will likely experience a significant cooling."

Robert Gagosian, the director of Woods Hole, considered one of the world's leading oceanographic institutes, said: "We may be approaching a threshold that would shut down [the Gulf Stream] and cause abrupt climate changes.

"Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates." The scientists, who studied the composition of the waters of the Atlantic from Greenland to Tierra del Fuego, found that they have become "very much" saltier in the tropics and subtropics and "very much" fresher towards the poles over the past 50 years.

This is alarming because the Gulf Stream is driven by cold, very salty water sinking in the North Atlantic. This pulls warm surface waters northwards, forming the current.

The change is described as the "fingerprint" of global warming. As the world heats up, more water evaporates from the tropics and falls as rain in temperate and polar regions, making the warm waters saltier and the cold ones fresher. Melting polar ice adds more fresh water.

Ominously, the trend has accelerated since 1990, during which time the 10 hottest years on record have occurred. Many studies have shown that similar changes in the waters of the North Atlantic in geological time have often plunged Europe into an ice age, sometimes bringing the change in as little as a decade.

The National Academy of Sciences says that the jump occurs in the same way as "the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips a switch and turns on a light". Once the switch has occurred the new, hostile climate, lasts for decades at least, and possibly centuries.

When the Gulf Stream abruptly turned off about 12,700 years ago, it brought about a 1,300-year cold period, known as the Younger Dryas. This froze Britain in continuous permafrost, drove summer temperatures down to 10C and winter ones to -20C, and brought icebergs as far south as Portugal. Europe could not sustain anything like its present population. Droughts struck across the globe, including in Asia, Africa and the American west, as the disruption of the Gulf Stream affected currents worldwide.

Some scientists say that this is the "worst-case scenario" and that the cooling may be less dramatic, with the world's climate "flickering" between colder and warmer states for several decades. But they add that, in practice, this would be almost as catastrophic for agriculture and civilisation.

gone · 01-27-2004, 07:46 AM

Makes me even more glad I left Old Blighty.

davidm · 01-30-2004, 11:15 AM

And makes me more than a little apprehensive that I'm still here

gone · 01-30-2004, 12:01 PM

David, the Goodle page on your site is fun.

Proteus · 02-02-2004, 11:36 AM

i read a recent piece in the NY Times science section that remarked the cold temps along much of the eastern seaboard of N America was due to a 30% slow-down in the "pump" that normally draws the warm gulf stream water northward.

Probably means that both sides of the Atlantic in the northerly latitudes are in for the Big Chill.

Agent Smith · 02-18-2004, 10:06 AM

I've known about this for several years, but recently just heard it again on the 'art bell coast to coast' show. he was talking about the fact that he had written a book about this (I think 20 years ago) and that one of the leading european science institutions had just released a statement about it. Just a week or so ago in the Nation magazine they ran a story that the pentagon has released a report about the possible strategic defense problems this poses, against the wishes of the current bush junta. I mean if the pentagon reconizes it as a valid threat??? WTF? but you still have to 'argue' with otherwise intelligent people about whether or not 'global warming exists'. (a closet libertarian friend of mine got nearly apoplectic when he heard the bell commentary, claiming that there was still plenty of scientific doubt as to the existence of global warming in the first place...

)

01-27-2004, 06:42 AM	#1
daniel Author of 'Breaking Open the Head' Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 1,861	From today's Independent: Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades' By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor 25 January 2004 Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming, new research suggests. A study, which is being taken seriously by top government scientists, has uncovered a change "of remarkable amplitude" in the circulation of the waters of the North Atlantic. Similar events in pre-history are known to have caused sudden "flips" of the climate, bringing ice ages to northern Europe within a few decades. The development - described as "the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments", by the US Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, which led the research - threatens to turn off the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe's weather mild. If that happens, Britain and northern Europe are expected to switch abruptly to the climate of Labrador - which is on the same latitude - bringing a nightmare scenario where farmland turns to tundra and winter temperatures drop below -20C. The much-heralded cold snap predicted for the coming week would seem balmy by comparison. A report by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden - launched by Nobel prize-winner Professor Paul Crutzen and other top scientists - warned last week that pollution threatened to "trigger changes with catastrophic consequences" like these. Scientists have long expected that global warming could, paradoxically, cause a devastating cooling in Europe by disrupting the Gulf Stream, which brings as much heat to Britain in winter as the sun does: the US National Academy of Sciences has even described such abrupt, dramatic changes as "likely". But until now it has been thought that this would be at least a century away. The new research, by scientists at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Acquaculture Science at Lowestoft and Canada's Bedford Institute of Oceanography, as well as Woods Hole, indicates that this may already be beginning to happen. Dr Ruth Curry, the study's lead scientist, says: "This has the potential to change the circulation of the ocean significantly in our lifetime. Northern Europe will likely experience a significant cooling." Robert Gagosian, the director of Woods Hole, considered one of the world's leading oceanographic institutes, said: "We may be approaching a threshold that would shut down [the Gulf Stream] and cause abrupt climate changes. "Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates." The scientists, who studied the composition of the waters of the Atlantic from Greenland to Tierra del Fuego, found that they have become "very much" saltier in the tropics and subtropics and "very much" fresher towards the poles over the past 50 years. This is alarming because the Gulf Stream is driven by cold, very salty water sinking in the North Atlantic. This pulls warm surface waters northwards, forming the current. The change is described as the "fingerprint" of global warming. As the world heats up, more water evaporates from the tropics and falls as rain in temperate and polar regions, making the warm waters saltier and the cold ones fresher. Melting polar ice adds more fresh water. Ominously, the trend has accelerated since 1990, during which time the 10 hottest years on record have occurred. Many studies have shown that similar changes in the waters of the North Atlantic in geological time have often plunged Europe into an ice age, sometimes bringing the change in as little as a decade. The National Academy of Sciences says that the jump occurs in the same way as "the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips a switch and turns on a light". Once the switch has occurred the new, hostile climate, lasts for decades at least, and possibly centuries. When the Gulf Stream abruptly turned off about 12,700 years ago, it brought about a 1,300-year cold period, known as the Younger Dryas. This froze Britain in continuous permafrost, drove summer temperatures down to 10C and winter ones to -20C, and brought icebergs as far south as Portugal. Europe could not sustain anything like its present population. Droughts struck across the globe, including in Asia, Africa and the American west, as the disruption of the Gulf Stream affected currents worldwide. Some scientists say that this is the "worst-case scenario" and that the cooling may be less dramatic, with the world's climate "flickering" between colder and warmer states for several decades. But they add that, in practice, this would be almost as catastrophic for agriculture and civilisation. __________________ "Look for diamonds on the sidewalk." -- Kerouac

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01-27-2004, 07:46 AM	#2
gone Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: gone Posts: 502	Makes me even more glad I left Old Blighty.

01-30-2004, 11:15 AM	#3
davidm Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: London Posts: 7	And makes me more than a little apprehensive that I'm still here

01-30-2004, 12:01 PM	#4
gone Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: gone Posts: 502	David, the Goodle page on your site is fun.

02-02-2004, 11:36 AM	#5
Proteus Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: OH Posts: 113	i read a recent piece in the NY Times science section that remarked the cold temps along much of the eastern seaboard of N America was due to a 30% slow-down in the "pump" that normally draws the warm gulf stream water northward. Probably means that both sides of the Atlantic in the northerly latitudes are in for the Big Chill.

02-18-2004, 10:06 AM	#6
Agent Smith Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 689	I've known about this for several years, but recently just heard it again on the 'art bell coast to coast' show. he was talking about the fact that he had written a book about this (I think 20 years ago) and that one of the leading european science institutions had just released a statement about it. Just a week or so ago in the Nation magazine they ran a story that the pentagon has released a report about the possible strategic defense problems this poses, against the wishes of the current bush junta. I mean if the pentagon reconizes it as a valid threat??? WTF? but you still have to 'argue' with otherwise intelligent people about whether or not 'global warming exists'. (a closet libertarian friend of mine got nearly apoplectic when he heard the bell commentary, claiming that there was still plenty of scientific doubt as to the existence of global warming in the first place... )